Data-driven attribution: the hype, the hope, and reasonable expectations

(Originally posted on Medium.) Last week eMarketer released new data highlighting the slow adoption of multichannel attribution among US marketers (subscribers only). Despite increasingly complex customer decision journeys less than half of those surveyed use attribution models that value assisting touchpoints. To quote Cindy Liu of eMarketer: Advanced attribution modeling is used to track and score…
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Digital attribution as a means to an end

(FYI: cross-posted on Medium in response to A Case for Ambiguity in Data-Driven Marketing.) Until we are studying motivations, even as we frame our tests in the context of generating the revenue that keeps our companies or clients afloat, we are condemned to do our work amidst the uncertainty of an infinite array of possibilities for why our campaigns…
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Measuring marketing value through incrementality experiments

Last week Google released CausalImpact, an open-source r package that both improves and simplifies incrementality analysis of time series data. For marketers who do not always have the luxury of A/B tests but still want to be data-driven, this package should be a core part of the toolkit. Based on original research, the model establishes what’s called a…
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Viewable impressions and out-of-home measurement

For advertisers, all impressions are not created equal. This is as true for TV and radio as it is for digital media. For several years, display advertisers have discussed, debated and disagreed upon the topic of viewable impressions, with new standards set to take effect next year. While online advertisers often tout the superiority of digital over…
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Analytics and digital decision makers in marketing

HBR sums up the trajectory and redefinition of Analytics, the capital-A version: Analytics, once a back-of-the-house research function, is becoming entwined in daily strategy development and operations. Executives who were pioneering early digital marketing teams 10 years ago are advancing to the CMO office. Already wired for measurement, they are often amazed at the analytics…
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Changes in advertising, attribution and offline retail

Earlier this week I joined Google’s telecom team at their Atlanta offsite to talk about mobile, attribution and related topics. My presentation is embedded at the bottom of this post but we actually spent the entire hour doing q&a. Attribution continues to be a central theme in advertising; more specifically, how do you build models…
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Attribution challenges throughout the purchase funnel

TechCrunch covers new data from IBM (sourced from a Black Friday Report) that exposes the weakness of last-click attribution models: Twitter and Facebook usually aren’t the last click before an ecommerce buy, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t inspire or influence the purchase. Yet IBM’s Black Friday report says Twitter delivered 0 percent of referral traffic and Facebook sent just 0.68 percent….
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