Nate Silver on prediction as art and science

Nate Silver’s presidential poll analysis cleaned up in 2008 with 49/50 states correct and 35/35 Senate races. Now he’s written a book on forecasting and unavoidable biases:

In The Signal and the Noise, Silver looks at analysts in many fields, from weather to the economy to national security, and concludes that those who succeed at spotting new trends and understanding the future are careful to acknowledge what they don’t know — and examine the assumptions that underlie their thinking. Humility, he says, is critical.

Reviews are positive, should be a good read.