Predictive analytics, five years later

This week I am at Predictive Analytics World Boston to learn from leaders in statistics, data mining, and related analytical disciplines. Much has changed since I attended the inaugural PAW conference over five years ago but many of the core challenges and techniques remain the same. While it’s clear that demand for predictive analytics has increased significantly over the last several years—measured in part…
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The rise and fall of prediction markets

Yesterday I saw an announcement for Microsoft Prediction Lab which allows users to predict upcoming events such as elections. While prediction markets are nothing new—the Iowa Electronics Market has been operational since 1988 and, over time, has routinely outperformed traditional polls—I have not heard about them as much recently. Google Trends seems to validate the idea that their popularity has waned, with a slow…
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Measuring marketing value through incrementality experiments

Last week Google released CausalImpact, an open-source r package that both improves and simplifies incrementality analysis of time series data. For marketers who do not always have the luxury of A/B tests but still want to be data-driven, this package should be a core part of the toolkit. Based on original research, the model establishes what’s called a…
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Not all impressions are created equal

Links are at the heart of the internet so it’s no surprise that digital marketers primarily focus on clicks. Clicks are comfortable—especially for direct response marketers who grew up in direct mail, telesales, etc.—despite new devices, new content formats, and new consumer behaviors. Earlier today, Chartbeat’s Tony Haile posted about the challenges of moving beyond click measurement:…
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Marketplaces on the internet

Underlying some of the internet age’s most prominent success stories are marketplaces. These range from actual marketplaces like Uber—platforms that bring together previously disconnected supply and demand audiences—to business models that leverage markets to increase efficiency. From a business and venture perspective, marketplaces capture the imagination both rationally and emotionally. In this series of posts we…
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Biz dev done right

Via Andrew Parker of Spark Capital, the key to business development is understanding your audience: You need to recognize that the person sitting across from you at the table represents their company but will not necessarily act in their company’s best interests… Be brash enough to ask how that person is bonused. Be creative enough…
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Analytics and digital decision makers in marketing

HBR sums up the trajectory and redefinition of Analytics, the capital-A version: Analytics, once a back-of-the-house research function, is becoming entwined in daily strategy development and operations. Executives who were pioneering early digital marketing teams 10 years ago are advancing to the CMO office. Already wired for measurement, they are often amazed at the analytics…
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